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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Austin Peay

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:164.0
Current RPI:164
Expected SOS:180
Current SOS:180
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:260
Expected OOC SOS:128


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14164.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Austin Peay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Vanderbilt (132.0)SECA73-54L0%0.0
11-13Virginia (1.0)ACCA93-49L0%0.0
11-19UNC Asheville (130.0)BSthH79-82L0%0.0
11-26Miami OH (159.0)MACH86-61W100%0.0
11-29Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12A79-63L0%0.0
12-2Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH67-47W100%0.0
12-6Illinois (181.0)B10A64-57L0%0.0
12-16Evansville (151.0)MVCA78-74L0%0.0
12-19Troy (194.0)SBH75-73W100%0.0
12-22Western Kentucky (39.0)CUSAH55-72L0%0.0
12-28SIU Edwardsville (287.0)OVCH78-58W100%0.0
12-30Eastern Illinois (262.0)OVCH70-54W100%0.0
1-4Tennessee Martin (306.0)OVCH75-69W100%0.0
1-6Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH76-71W100%0.0
1-11Tennessee Tech (158.0)OVCA86-74L0%0.0
1-13Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCA67-87W100%0.0
1-18Tennessee St. (189.0)OVCA70-56L0%0.0
1-20Belmont (81.0)OVCA83-59L0%0.0
1-25Eastern Kentucky (271.0)OVCH90-84W100%0.0
1-27Morehead St. (292.0)OVCH92-76W100%0.0
2-1Tennessee Martin (306.0)OVCA57-59W100%0.0
2-3Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA81-96W100%0.0
2-8Murray St. (48.0)OVCA84-63L0%0.0
2-10Eastern Illinois (262.0)OVCA69-76W100%0.0
2-15Tennessee Tech (158.0)OVCH80-86L0%0.0
2-17Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH60-57W100%0.0
2-22SIU Edwardsville (287.0)OVCA82-86W100%0.0
2-24Murray St. (48.0)OVCH64-73L0%0.0
3-1Eastern Illinois (262.0)OVCN73-66W100%0.0
3-2Belmont (81.0)OVCN79-94L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Austin Peay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Austin Peay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Austin Peay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Austin PeayOVC26.3826.3853.8553.852.032.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC5.815.8138.4638.46-1.34-1.34
Murray St.OVC4.304.3081.4881.482.712.71
BelmontOVC4.294.2970.9770.971.801.80
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.234.2332.1432.14-1.51-1.51
Jacksonville St.OVC4.204.2066.6766.671.401.40
Tennessee TechOVC4.204.2051.7251.720.140.14
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.184.1844.4444.44-0.46-0.46
Tennessee MartinOVC4.184.1829.6329.63-1.70-1.70
Tennessee St.OVC2.642.6444.4444.44-0.29-0.29
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.552.5532.1432.14-0.91-0.91
Morehead St.OVC2.532.5323.0823.08-1.36-1.36
VanderbiltSEC1.771.7735.4835.48-0.51-0.51
Western KentuckyCUSA1.751.7568.7568.750.650.65
EvansvilleMVC1.721.7248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB101.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
UNC AshevilleBSth1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
VirginiaACC1.691.6993.7593.751.481.48
Alabama A&MSWAC1.671.6710.0010.00-1.33-1.33
Miami OHMAC1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Oklahoma St.B121.671.6756.2556.250.210.21
TroySB1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Western IllinoisSum0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.2359.3859.380.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.220.2269.7069.700.090.09
ChattanoogaSC0.220.2225.8125.81-0.10-0.10
LipscombASun0.220.2268.9768.970.080.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.210.2176.6776.670.110.11
BradleyMVC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
TCUB120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
IUPUIHorz0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
NebraskaB100.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Green BayHorz0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Kansas St.B120.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
OhioMAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Saint LouisA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
LSUSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
IndianaB100.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.110.1179.4179.410.060.06
WisconsinB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
MarquetteBE0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Oregon St.P120.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
DePaulBE0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0812.5012.50-0.06-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
SamfordSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01